Hot Beans, Cold Forecasts: Why Coffee Is Getting More Expensive

What do spring weather, the global coffee market, and your barista’s morning mood have in common?

None of them knows what tomorrow will bring…

Green arabica prices are soaring — and no, this isn’t just seasonal turbulence. In the past few months alone, average purchase prices have jumped over 30%, and it looks like this is just the beginning. Global economy plus climate stress equals a new reality we have to live (and brew) in.

Financial swings tougher than emotional ones from your ex:

The price spike was triggered by the U.S. dollar index hitting a 3-year low, causing a wave of short covering. When the dollar weakens, raw materials become cheaper for buyers in other currencies, and demand skyrockets.

Add to that supply concerns:

– Brazil’s green coffee exports fell by 26% in March.

– Robusta stockpiles on ICE dropped to a 6-week low.

– Arabica inventories on ICE rose, putting pressure on prices.

– Fears of trade wars are brewing, which could hit consumer demand due to rising tariffs.

Climate chaos on coffee farms:

Brazil — the world’s top arabica producer — saw 188% more rain than usual in the Minas Gerais region in recent weeks. This followed extreme heat and droughts that had already damaged parts of the crop. That’s why exports fell 26% in March.

Vietnam — the biggest robusta exporter (and second-largest coffee producer overall) — is battling severe drought, reducing yields.

What does this mean for us?

For coffee lovers — a price increase of 2–3 UAH per cup.

For cafés — a struggle to stay afloat as costs skyrocket. Rent, wages, logistics, taxes — all rising, all squeezing margins. Those 2 extra hryvnias? Not a whim, but a survival strategy to keep coffee accessible while keeping the business alive.

So, to our coffee partners — stay strong. We’re watching the pulse of the market and standing with you.

To our coffee lovers — support your favorite spots during these tough times. Rising prices don’t mean the end of the coffee era — just a sign the world is shifting, and we must shift with it to keep enjoying great coffee.

Hugs <3

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Hot Beans, Cold Forecasts: Why Coffee Is Getting More Expensive

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